Arlington swings to the political center, election results show

Arlington residents may still feel vertigo from the political swing the city undertook Tuesday night.

Just four years ago, the city’s residents backed President Bush over John Kerry by 62 percent. Because of the robust GOP lean, a national study ranked Arlington the 14th most conservative large city in the country.

Last week, while Tarrant County and Texas-backed Republican John McCain, Arlington gave more votes to Barack Obama. The Democratic president-elect nabbed just over 50 percent support from Arlington, or 2,767 additional votes, than McCain. Democratic support in several local races confirms that the city went from red to solidly purple in this election cycle.

"The demographics of Arlington have changed dramatically," said Allen Saxe, University of Texas at Arlington political science professor. "It really is a swing city."

The two presidential candidates split the city nearly in half, with McCain receiving more support from the central and western parts of Arlington, and Obama winning more precincts in the southern and eastern areas.

The city of over 370,000 also played a role in three competitive legislative races this year, and the Election Day results further laid bare its partisan divide:

Central Arlington largely backed Republican state Sen. Kim Brimer over Democratic challenger Wendy Davis. Davis still managed to win the race to represent about half of Tarrant County by winning a handful of Arlington precincts and most of Fort Worth.

South Arlington turned out about 3,300 more votes for Democratic challenger Chris Turner than Republican state Rep. Bill Zedler, representing close to all of Turner’s 3,806-vote margin of victory in the race overall. The district also includes Crowley, Kennedale and parts of Fort Worth, Mansfield, Forest Hill and Burleson.

East Arlington showed its blue lean in the Senate District 9 race. Republican state Sen. Chris Harris handily won re-election against Democrat Melvin Willms and Libertarian Carl Nulsen thanks to his support from the parts of the district in Dallas and Denton counties. But in a portion of Tarrant County, mostly east Arlington and a sliver of Grand Prairie, Harris got trounced, drawing 42 percent of the vote to Willms’ 56 percent. Steve Maxwell, Tarrant County Democratic Party chairman, admitted to being floored by Willms performance in Tarrant County, given that Willms didn’t raise a dime or even bother to put up a campaign Web site.

Arlington City Councilman Gene Patrick said the Election Day results didn’t surprise him at all.

Anyone looking at the city’s shifting population could see that a partisan shift was inevitable, he said.

"I think the demographics are changing racially, income-wise and every way else," Patrick said. "I think central Arlington is shifting a great deal largely because a lot of our seniors . . . have moved out to the farther regions" outside of the city, he said.

Patrick also said many owner-occupied homes are being taken over by renters, attracting different kinds of people to the city.

The Republican hold on Arlington first began to loosen in 2006, when Republican state Rep. Toby Goodman lost to Democrat Paula Pierson in a race to represent a district that included east Arlington, Mansfield and a small part of Grand Prairie.

"I think that was a prelude to what probably took place Tuesday," Saxe said.

Former Arlington Mayor Elzie Odom first moved to the city in the late 1970s, when it and the county were shaking off years of Democratic dominance and shifting toward the GOP.

"I, like everybody else, came here because I needed to be in between the cities [Dallas and Fort Worth] and near the airport," Odom said.

Arlington became the leading GOP center for the county in the 1980s, said Tarrant County Clerk Tom Wilder, a longtime Republican.

"Arlington was where our best vote was and that moved to Northeast Tarrant," Wilder said. "Arlington’s picture is definitely changing."

An influx of young couples and minorities has been key to the city’s recent move toward the center, Odom said.

Market forces are driving them to southeast Arlington, he said.

"Most of the minorities that come to Arlington are coming with jobs or they are employable if they aren’t employed and that’s where they’re looking for homes," Odom said. "The most affordable starter homes are in the southeast part of Arlington."

Despite the demographic changes, it is unclear whether Arlington will shift back toward the Republicans or move further Democratic in the coming years.

Saxe said many Arlington voters who backed Democrats this year weren’t members of the party.

"These were people that were so disenchanted with the Republican Party, they were actually voting more against the Republicans than for Obama or the Democrats," Saxe said.

Several city watchers said that depending on the state of the economy and other issues, the political pendulum in Arlington could swing in either direction.

"What I would say to the Republicans holding office or think they’re voter-proof, start reaching out to everybody," Odom said.