State Senate victory unexpected even to Wendy Davis

FORT WORTH — The Wednesday morning quarterbacking was rampant as political insiders speculated how former Fort Worth Councilwoman Wendy Davis ousted Republican Kim Brimer, a 20-year legislator, in the race for Senate District 10.

Some analysts conclude that Davis was better able to reach across party lines and appeal to independents or that many Republican straight-ticket voters split their ballot and voted for Davis, a Democrat.

Many were surprised that Davis won by nearly 7,000 votes, receiving 49.9 percent of the ballots cast. Brimer received 47.5 percent, and Libertarian Richard Cross garnered 2.6 percent.

The win was even unexpected to Davis.

"It’s probably reflective of many things, such as my 8  1/2 years on the Fort Worth City Council, which helped me build relationships with Republicans and Democrats alike and that they trust my ability to represent them," she said from Austin, where she participated in a joint news conference by state Democratic leaders who were touting their Tuesday night victories.

Davis’ win was especially important to the party because it narrowed the Republican majority in the Senate to 18-12, with one seat in Harris County still undecided. The Senate District 10 race was key in Democrats’ long-term hopes of regaining control of the chamber.

Most political experts expected Brimer to win the seat because Tarrant County is heavily Republican. Brimer won the 2004 election with nearly 60 percent of the vote.

Political observers offered varying reasons for the Democratic Party’s two victories in Tarrant County. Some saw the results as a repudiation of an unpopular president. Others said two Republican losses don’t amount to a shift in the county’s political winds.

How she won

"The answer was simple. Brimer was counting on the partisan Republicans in Tarrant County to be enough to get him over the line. We built a coalition of Democrats, moderates, independents and some Republicans, and Wendy was willing to talk to them by going to their doors, being on their phone and letting them understand they were not being represented. She needed to cut her margins in the northeast part of Tarrant County.  . . .  I think it is still a Republican-leaning district, but it is not as Republican as they thought it was, and we did a good job of exploiting that."

— J.D. Angle of the Tyson Organization, which ran Davis’ campaign

"I don’t think there was much of a newly registered voter effect. I think [Davis’ campaign] had a good early voting push. But we had two candidates whose name identification was fairly low at the start of the election. And we knew coming in that Brimer had a significant bloc of Democratic votes to overcome. Typically, he has been able to overcome that with other Republican voting areas of the district."

— Judd Pritchard of the Eppstein Group, which ran Brimer’s campaign

What the win means

"Tarrant County is going to continue Republican for some years before it becomes closely contested. There will be pockets in Tarrant County that will send Democrats to the Legislature, and they will continue. But Texas is on its way to becoming two-party competitive in the next decade . . . unless something extraordinary happens. Democrats are on a slow upward arc, and it will be hard to change that arc."

— Cal Jillson, political science professor at Southern Methodist University in Dallas

"I supported my former legislative colleague who I worked with over the years. I certainly congratulate Ms. Davis, and I think she will do a fine job. I’m not sure what the outcome signals."

— Fort Worth Mayor Mike Moncrief, who endorsed Brimer

"I’m still going through the precinct-by-precinct votes. Overall, the Democratic turnout was historic in our county. I don’t know if they will be able to do that again. There were a lot of voters who voted for the first time ever. But it remains to be seen whether they will vote again. The turnout was far higher in the northeast part of the county, which tells me we had some ticket-splitters."

— Stephanie Klick, Tarrant County Republican chairwoman

Staff writer Darren Barbee contributed to this report.